InstaForex Wave Analysis

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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for June 5, 2012






Wave marking analysis:
Yesterday the USD/JPY tried to develop the ascending movement that began on Friday transforming it to the new and more prolonged corrective structure. The first possible targets are seen near 78.60 – 78.90 corresponding to the correction levels of 23.6% and 38.2% for the whole supposed wave 3. If that proves to be so, then after the completion of these levels, the pair will resume its movement towards the target level located near 76.50.



Targets for the continuation of the downward trend within the wave 3 or C in C:
77.67 – 161.8% of Fibonacci

Targets for the option with the wave 4 in C or formation of new upward part of the trend:
78.24 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
78.61 – 38.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the descending part of the trend is being forming supposedly within the wave 4 in C. If this suggestion is true, then the wave C has quite complicated inner structure that is likely to complicate several times. In general the pair is likely to continue its growth towards 78.24 and 78.61 which is equal to 23.6% and 38.2% of Fibonacci. The situation with this pair is rather controversial than clear and the wave picture needs clarifications.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for June 5, 2012






General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY rate on June 5 we can see that in the course of yesterday’s deals the rate was moving within a correction though the further descending movement is still possible. The current signal for Sell-deals remains strong, as the Chinkou Span is fixed below the price chart and the price is located higher than the Ichimoku Cloud. That is why the target for downside movement is seen at the first support level 77.20. In case traders are able to pass this level through, the next target will be seen at the second support level of 76.39. The descending movement remains relevant as long as the price is located higher than the critical Kijun-Sen line (78.60). Stop Loss is recommended to be placed higher than this line while bearish trade. The signal for Sell-deals will weaken in case the price is fixed above this line. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bearish mood on the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands indicates the descending movement, lines are restricting and directed downwards, so short positions are still relevant. MACD is directed upwards indicating the current corrective movement. Therefore, you cannot consider short position until the indicator reverses to downwards showing the resumption of descending movement.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/JPY market it is recommended to consider Sell positions with 77.20 seen as first target. In case this level has been overcome, the point 76.39 will be considered as the next target. Stop Loss is to be placed above the 78.60 and as this line goes lower, lines can be placed to downwards. When the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, Stop Loss can be replaced to the non-loss area. Take profits are to be set approximately on 77.30 and 76.50 levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

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My Blog with additional information to the analysis.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Elliott wave count for June 5, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair was trading in a sideways movement yesterday developing the wave 4 (coloured blue) of the bigger (5) wave. From the beginning of the European session this major started the descending movement towards the 1.0375 level. Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair started pushing higher reaching a 1.0435 level. During the Second half of the NY session we could observe the continuation of the bearish mood and price return to the 1.0390 level. Today's Asian session follow yesterday bearish mood and price reached a new low at 1.0360 level. We can consider this move as end of the corrective 4 wave (coloured blue). At the moment we can observe the start of the impulsive 5 wave of the bigger (1) wave (coloured green) and we are expecting to see price higher today.In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 50% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring the 3 wave with Take Profit 1 at 1.0475 (50% of wave 3) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502 (61.8% of wave 3). The end of the 4 wave can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Building Permits m/m, BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate, USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and G7 Meetings Meetings that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0325 (S2) 1.0354 (S1) 1.0373 (PP) 1.0402 (R1) 1.0431 (R2) 1.0450 (R3) 1.0479

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0420 with Stop Loss at 1.0390,Take Profit 1 at 1.0475 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 5, 2011

The AUD/USD pair is developing a corrective wave B (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend from 0.9581 comprising three subwaves (orange red in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 0.9627.

Presently the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0473-0.9581 and expansions of 0.9581-0.9724-0.9627, 0.9627-0.9746-0.9693.

Resistances:

- 0.9812 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9858 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9886 = XOP
- 0.9922 = .382 retracement

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9581 - this wave has not developed yet, so are not available.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving upwards, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (55-65 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 5, 2011

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and an impulse subwave C developing from 126.39 incuding four subwaves (red in the chart), and a potential corrective subwave 4 developing from 118.74 that comprises three subwaves (orange red in the chart), and a potential impulse subwave C developing from 119.67.

At the moment resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 125.03-118.74 and expansions of 118.74-120.77-119.67.

Resistances:

- 120.92 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 121.14 = .382 retracement
- 121.70 = objective point (OP)
- 121.88 = .50 ret
- 122.63 = .618 ret
- 122.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Presenlty the downside targets are Fibonacci expansions of 129.33-124.59-126.39, 126.39-124.08-125.03, 125.03-118.74-120.77.

Supports:

- 118.72 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 116.88 = contracted objective point (COP)



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for June 6, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last 2 days the USD/CAD pair was developing a complex corrective wave 4 (coloured blue). Yesterday during the European session we could observe the ascending movement towards the 1.0424 level and we can consider this move as end of the (x) wave (coloured pink). Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair started pushing lower reaching a 1.0360 level.Today during the Asian session this major pair continued trading in a bearish mood and price reached 1.0310 level.Presently we can observe the end of the 4 wave and prepare to enter Long position for the 5 wave.In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 78.6% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring the 3 wave with Take Profit 1 at 1.0450 (61.8% of wave 3) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0488 (78.6% of wave 3). The invalidation of this count at 1.0269 can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Crude Oil Inventories,Beige Book and FOMC Member Williams Speaks that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0323 (S2) 1.0348 (S1) 1.0363 (PP) 1.0387 (R1) 1.0412 (R2) 1.0427 (R3) 1.0451

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0350 with Stop Loss at 1.0269 Profit 1 at 1.0450 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0488 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 6, 2011

The AUD/USD pair is developing a corrective wave B (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend from 0.9581. Within this wave we have three subwaves (red in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 0.9710.

Presently the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0473-0.9581 and expansions of 0.9581-0.9803-0.9710.

Resistances:

- 0.9847 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9922 = .382 retracement
- 0.9932 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0027 = .50 ret
- 1.0069 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9581 - this wave is not developed yet, so supports are not available so far.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving upwards, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (45-60 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 6, 2011

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (magenta in the chart) and a potential corrective subwave 4 moving from 118.74. Within this wave we also have three subwaves (red in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 119.69.

At the moment the resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 125.03-118.74, 126.39-118.74 and expansions of 118.74-120.77-119.69, 119.69-121.27-120.56.

Resistances:

- 121.66-72 = confluence area of .382 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 121.88 = .50 ret
- 122.14 = OP
- 122.57-63 = confluence area of .50 and .618 ret
-122.97 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.12 = XOP

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the upside wave from 118.74. As this wave has not developed yet, supports are not available.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving down, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-50 pips above the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for June 7, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward channel developing corrective (2) (coloured green). Yesterday since the opening of Asian session up to the end of the European session the USD/CAD was trading in a descending movement near the 1.0310 level. Therefore, during the New York session we could observe the continuation of the bearish mood and price reached 1.0270 level. Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a sideways movement. At the moment we are in the corrective C wave expecting the price to go lower today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets Fibonacci retracement (0.9803-1.0444) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0198 (38.2% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0122 (50% of wave 1). Resistance level at 1.0310 can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Unemployment Claims, Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks and CAD Ivey PMI that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0196 (S2) 1.0239 (S1) 1.0266 (PP) 1.0309 (R1) 1.0352 (R2) 1.0379 (R3) 1.0422

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0260 with Stop Loss at 1.0310,Take Profit 1 at 1.0198 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0122 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 7, 2011

The AUD/USD pair is developing a corrective wave B (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend from 0.9581 comprising three subwaves (red in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 0.9710. This wave also includes three subwaves (orange red in the chart) and a subwave C is moving from 0.9877.

Presently the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0473-0.9581 and expansions of 0.9581-0.9803-0.9710, 0.9710-0.9931-0.9877.

Resistances:

- 1.0014 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0027 = .50 retracement
- 1.0069 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0098 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0132 = .618 ret

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9581 - this wave is not developed yet, so supports are not available.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (20-25 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-50 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 7, 2011

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart) comprising two subwaves (royal blue in the chart) and a potential corrective subwave B moving from 118.74. Within this wave we also have three subwaves (red in the chart) and impulse subwave C developing from 119.69 including 5 subwaves (yellow in the chart) and subwave 5 still moving from 121.91.

Presently the resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 126.39-118.74 and expansions of 118.74-120.77-119.69, 119.69-121.27-120.56, 120.56-122.89-121.91.

Resistances:

- 122.97 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.12 = XOP
- 123.35 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.47 = .618 retracement
- 124.24 = objective point (OP)

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 118.74 - this wave has not developed yet, so supports are not available.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-50 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for June 8, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday during the Asian and European session the USD/CAD pair had descending movement developing end of the (2) wave (colored green). After this major pair found support around 1.0210 level and finished corrective (2) wave we could observe start of the upward movement for the start of the (3) wave. During the New York session price reached 1.0282 level. Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached 1.0340 level.We can consider this move as the end of the 1 wave (colored blue) and at the moment we could observe start of the 2 wave (colored blue).In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets Fibonacci retracement (1.0210-1.1.0350) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0279 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0263 (50% of wave 1). Resistance level at 1.0370 can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the CAD Housing Starts, Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Labor Productivity q/q and U.S Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories m/m data that can change the exchange rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0175 (S2) 1.0208 (S1) 1.0228 (PP) 1.0260 (R1) 1.0293 (R2) 1.0313 (R3) 1.0345

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0330 with Stop Loss at 1.0370,Take Profit 1 at 1.0279 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0263 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 8, 2011

AUD/USD is developing corrective wave B (light green in the chart) of a mid-term downtrend from 0.9581. Within this wave we have two subwaves (magenta in the chart). Potential corrective subwave B is developing from 1.0002.

Now the supports below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9710-1.0002, and 0.9581-1.0002.

Supports:

- 0.9841 = .382 retracement
- 0.9822 = .618 ret
- 0.9791 = .50 ret
- 0.9742 = .618 ret

If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0473-0.9581.

Resistances:

- 1.0027 = .50 retracement
- 1.0132 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 8, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of a mid-term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have two subwaves (royal blue in the chart). Potential corrective subwave B is moving from 118.74. Within this wave we also have four subwaves (red in the chart); potential corrective subwave 4 is developing from 124.28.

The supports below are Fibonacci retracements of 119.69-124.28, 118.74-124.28.

Supports:

- 122.53 = .382 retracement
- 122.16 = .382 ret
- 121.99 = .50 ret
- 121.51-44 = .50 and .618 retracements
- 120.86 = .618 ret

However if the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 129.33-118.74, and expansions of 118.74-120.77-119.69.

- 125.00 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 125.28 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices as well). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for June 11, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave

Last week the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward channel developing corrective (2) wave (coloured green). During the Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement toward the 1.0353 level. We can consider this move as the end of (B) wave (coloured green). Therefore during the NY session the USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching a new daily low at the 1.0260 level. Today during the Asian session we could observe continuation of the bearish mood and price reached the 1.0200 level. At the moment we are at the start of the (1) wave (coloured green) and we are expecting to see price above 1.0500 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 1 to push the USD/CAD pair to the 1.0500 level, we can put Take Profit 1 at 1.0300 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0350. Invalidation point at 1.0200 can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. FOMC Member Lockhart Speech data that can change the rate of the pair.
Alternation: The USD/CAD pair is still in the corrective (2) wave (coloured green) and we can expect continuation of the bearish mood to the 1.0122 level (50% retrace of wave 1).

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0202 (S2) 1.0238 (S1) 1.0260 (PP) 1.0295 (R1) 1.0331 (R2) 1.0353 (R3) 1.0388

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0240 with Stop Loss at 1.0200 Take Profit 1 at 1.0300 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0350 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 11, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have two subwaves (royal blue in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B is moving from 118.74. Within this wave we also have two subwaves (magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B is developing from 124.28.

The supports below are Fibonacci retracements of 118.74-124.28.

Supports:

- 121.51 = .50 retracement
- 120.86 = .618 ret

However if the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 129.33-118.74, and expansions off 118.74-124.28-121.85.

- 125.27-28 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com